Blue Great
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 2008 Cfl Preview
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 2008 CFL Preview
Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda had Kevin Glenn Started the 2007 CFL Grey Cup game for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Saskatchewan, but QB Ryan Dinwiddie of Boise State did a great job for his first career start. Imagine that, your first pro start is the Championship game and the kid did alright! The Bombers were a solid football team last year and they were well balanced, as they played well on offense and their defense was one of the tops in the league. In fact, their front four on defense was great against the run, as they only allowed 99 first down rushing, one of the best in the league.
What I liked about the 2007 Winnipeg Blue Bombers football team, they all had their head coach’s attitude. Doug Berry is a no nonsense football coach and has a great approach to the games, its either white or black, there’s no grey in his books.
From a betting perspective, the Bombers were a good football team to bet on during Week 1 to 12, as they never had consecutive SU losing streaks and the UNDER hit 66.6% of the time for the Bombers last season, as the UNDER was 14-7-0 and 80% at home, going 8-2-0. Defense wins championships and the Bombers had the Defense to take them to the big dance. If there was any head games being played, it was in the kicking game, as CFL veteran Troy Westwood patience were tried on several occasions, as Berry had the other Kicker Paul Pikula take the assignment in some games.
As for the 2008 edition, from a bookmaker’s point of view, they seem to be one of the top teams to beat, as the bookmakers have installed the Blue and Gold as a +525 to win the 2008 Grey Cup and +210 to win the Eastern Division. In case you’re new to sports betting, that would mean you would need to lay $100 down to win $525 if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup.
The Blue Bombers have a great room of Wiley veterans like Charles Roberts, Milt Stegall, Kevin Glenn, and Doug Brown to name a few, this is why I like the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win the Eastern Division this season.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 2007 Season Stats
Straight up Record: 12-8-1 (SU)
Against the Spread Record: 11-10-0 (ATS)
O/U/P: 7 OVERS 14 UNDERS 0 PUSH
Home Record:
Straight up Record: 8-2 (SU)
ATS Record: 4-6-0 (ATS)
O/U/P Record: 2-8-0 (O/U/P)
Road Record:
Straight up Record: 4-6-1 (SU)
ATS Record: 7-4-0 (ATS)
O/U/P Record: 5-6-0 (O/U/P)
Last 2 Years: 21-19-0 (ATS) 21-18-1 (SU) 14-26-0 (O/U/P)
Last 3 Years: 27-28-3 (ATS) 26-31-1 (SU) 26-32-0 (O/U/P)
Last 4 Years: 35-38-3 (ATS) 33-42-1 (SU) 35-41-0 (O/U/P)
Last 5 Years: 40-52-3 (ATS) 44-50-1 (SU) 48-47-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:
54-60-4 (ATS) 57-61 (SU) 54-61-3 (O/U/P)
Value Index
Once the secret is out of the bag, it’s hard to find value in something that made you money last season and that’s why I believe the bookmakers will be putting out a tight total on the Bombers games this season. Let’s face it, how many times have you seen football teams cover the UNDER in 80% of their home games in back to back seasons? In 2001, the Bombers seen the UNDER go to 8-2-0 and the following year the UNDER was 6-4-0. Therefore, since I’m a subscriber of the Law of Average theory and applying it to sports handicapping, I will be looking to play the OVER when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a Road Favorite this season. Here’s my rational on this situation, as I feel if the Bombers are a Road Favorite, and by going reviewing past numbers, you will catch them anywhere from a -3 to -6.5 point road chalk most times; plus when you consider you should be giving the home team a -3 point “Home support” advantage right off the hop. Plus, if the Bombers get in a lead, the Home Team has a better chance of coming back at home, then on the road. Momentum plays a huge role in a football game and turnovers are a great way to spark a team and home teams can really build off the energy of the crowd to spark the comeback. The OVER is 8-4-0 for the Bombers as a Road Favorite the last 3 Years. Plus, this is the CFL; you can score 21 points in the 3 minute warning! Trust me; I still have the scars to prove it!
Here’s how the Blue Bombers did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.
Underdog: 69-66-6 (ATS) 43-96-2 (SU) 73-62-5 (O/U/P)
Favorite: 45-51-3 (ATS) 66-33 (SU) 43-54-2 (O/U/P)
Home Dog: 22-20-4 (ATS) 15-31 (SU) 24-21-1 (O/U/P)
Home Fave: 28-29-1 (ATS) 43-15 (SU) 23-35-0 (O/U/P)
Road Dog: 41-41-1 (ATS) 21-60-2 (SU) 44-35-3 (O/U/P)
Road Fave: 11-17-1 (ATS) 16-13 (SU) 15-13-1 (O/U/P)
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team
Here’s the thing with the Blue Bombers, they’ve been ship back and forth from the East and West division because of the Ottawa Rough Riders and Ottawa Renegades situation. Therefore, it’s tough to put some value numbers into the Blue Bombers division and non-division record the last 10 years, as they’ve been part of both divisions. If you go by geographic rivalries, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers biggest rivalry game would be the Saskatchewan Roughriders. In fact, both teams play in what is called the Banjo Bowl, which is normally scheduled right after the Labor Day Classics games. Actually, the short history of the Banjo Bowl is kind of funny and you can read the history of this annual game at Wikipedia; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banjo_Bowl
Team by Team Breakdown:
Vs. Montreal: 19-15-2 (ATS) 12-24 (SU) 20-13-2 (O/U/P)
Vs. Hamilton : 18-17-0 (ATS) 19-16 (SU) 12-22-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Toronto: 15-19-1 (ATS) 13-21-1 (SU) 17-18-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Edmonton: 14-13-1 (ATS) 11-16 (SU) 15-13-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Calgary : 9-16-1 (ATS) 8-18 (SU) 14-12-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Saskatchewan: 15-13-2 (ATS) 18-12 (SU) 17-12-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. BC Lions: 14-13-1 (ATS) 13-15 (SU) 8-18-2 (O/U/P)
Look ahead and Letdown Angles
One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It’s very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.
Here are some betting angles to consider when betting for and/or against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers since ’96.
The UNDER is 7-14-2 after playing the Calgary Stampeders.
Winnipeg is 6-21-1 SU and 6-20-2 ATS after playing the Lions.
Winnipeg is 24-9 SU before playing the Toronto Argonauts.
Winnipeg is 6-17-1 SU and 7-17-0 ATS before playing the Stampeders
Comment: The Bombers are a great example of the “look ahead” and “let down” games, as they seem to look ahead before playing the Stampeders and have a letdown game after playing the BC Lions. In fact, with the style of defense they have in Winnipeg, you might want to consider the UNDER on July 24th vs. the Stampeders, as you can kill two birds with one stone. As the Blue Bombers are coming off a B.C. Lions game on July 18th and they face the Stampeders on July 24th. If you go by past history, the UNDER is the call here.
About the Author
Phoenix Sports Ticket owner and Sports Handicapper Ron Raymond, 38, is a 4-time handicapping champion and one of the industry most recognizable leaders in the Sports Handicapping business. During the past 11 years, Ron has established over 10 sports gaming related gaming web sites which includes the development of a sports betting stats site (ATSDatabase.com), a sports betting statistical calculator (ATSCalculator.com) and a score result web site (Livescoreboard.com).
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